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Tuesday, June 19, 2007

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Posted on: Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Kilauea's recent activity hints
at eruption pattern

•

Volcano:
'Something's got to give'

By Jan
TenBruggencate
Advertiser Science Writer

The eruption of Kilauea is 24 years old, and while erratic in
some ways, it seems to follow patterns.

The events of the past four days — the flurry of earthquake
activity, magma migrating underground, the subsiding of the Pu'u
'O'o eruption — are similar to previous events on the
volcano.

Here is a history of the activity:

1983: Kilauea's current eruption started on Jan. 3, 1983, with a
series of fissures several miles east of the Kilauea Caldera on
what's called the east rift zone. The eruption eventually centered
on Pu'u 'O'o.

1986: The eruption moved down the slope away from the Kilauea
summit. For more than five years, lava poured from Kupaianaha,
creating an expansive shield structure there. During this period,
the lava wiped out the communities of Kalapana, Royal Gardens and
Kapa'ahu, all effectively destroyed by 1990.

1991-92: Starting in November 1991, fissures erupted between
Kupaianaha and Pu'u 'O'o, and within months, Kupaianaha stopped
erupting. Activity moved back to Pu'u 'O'o by early 1992. For most
of the time since then, lava has flowed from the cone there, or from
nearby vents.

1997: In January 1997, lava production at the Pu'u 'O'o site
dropped, the crater floor collapsed, and one side of the cone wall
fell down. Meanwhile, fissures opened and erupted upslope near Napau
Crater. But this activity lasted only about a day, and for three
weeks afterward, there was no fresh lava on Kilauea's flanks. Then
Pu'u 'O'o started up again.

1999: A swarm of earthquakes and broad deflation were believed to
accompany a magma movement into the upper east rift zone — similar
to what has been happening in recent days. The diverting of magma
into underground fractures is believed responsible for an 11-day
break in the eruption. Then the magma flow to Pu'u 'O'o reasserted
itself and the eruption there started up again.

2007: The current activity again seems to suggest some kind of
blocking of the flow of magma feeding Pu'u 'O'o. Instead, magma
appeared Sunday and yesterday to be squeezing into fractures between
one and two miles deep between the Pauahi and Makaopuhi craters. As
of late yesterday afternoon, no lava had reached the surface near
this site.

4-DAY KILAUEA TIMELINE:

Yesterday, late report:

Pu'u 'O'o eruption seems to
have stopped. Small amounts of lava still drip into the sea, but no
significant flow.

Geologists tracking a few new earthquakes
to the east, but most of the magma seems to still be entering the
underground area between Pauahi and Makaopuhi craters.
Widening
across the rift zone near Makaopuhi now up to 28
inches.

Eruption still possible, said Jim Kauahikaua, head of
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

Yesterday, 8
a.m.:

Earthquake activity drops to fewer than 10 temblors
per hour, but there is a strong tremor, suggesting magma continues
to move underground.

The widening at the area of greatest
earthquake activity has slowed. Pu'u 'O'o continues to deflate. It
is steaming but glow is no longer visible. Observers were to inspect
it yesterday morning.

Chain of Craters Road remains closed,
along with trails to east rift zone. Crater Rim Drive
reopens.

Yesterday, 4 a.m.:

Widening across the
rift zone near Makaopuhi now up to 15 inches.

Pu'u 'O'o
deflation continues, and glow from the eruption now intermittent;
many rockfalls and collapses in the vent area.

Teams
scheduled to head into the earthquake area to see what changes have
occurred.

Yesterday, just after
midnight:

Earthquake rate slowing to 10 to 15 small
temblors per hour, between Pauahi and Makaopuhi and about 1.5 miles
deep. The spread across the Makaopuhi area is now near 8
inches.

Pu'u 'O'o deflating steadily. The glow from the
center of the eruption appears to be dimming.

Strong tremor
continues under summit area.

Sunday, late
report:

Focus of underground activity appears to be
moving downrift, away from the Chain of Craters Road and toward the
Makaopuhi Crater. Pumping of magma into the area is spreading the
top of the rift zone apart. The area appears to have widened about 4
inches between 5 a.m. and 2 p.m.

Eruption continues at Pu'u
'O'o, but crater floor has collapsed around vents and East Pond lava
level dropping.

Geologists say the activity up-slope may be
reducing magma flow to the eruption.
National park evacuates
people from Chain of Craters Road area, and evacuates its herd of
working horses and mules from a pasture near the upper east rift
zone.

Sunday, early report:

A dense swarm of
shallow quakes — at times 100 an hour — start at 2:15 a.m. about a
mile southwest of Mauna Ulu, about 1.5 miles deep. Some strong
enough to be felt by residents of the Volcano region. Ten of them
exceeded magnitude 3.0.

Significant changes in tilt near the
quake area. Kilauea summit deflating.

Geologists say the
event may be molten rock moving into the shallow region. The center
of activity is within a mile of the Chain of Craters Road, and
cracks begin to appear in the road near the Mauna Ulu
turnoff.

Quakes continue through morning at about one per
minute.

Eruption continuing at Pu'u 'O'o, but tilt meter now
recording weak deflation.

Chain of Craters Road closed.
Crater Rim Drive closed between Jaggar Museum and Thurston Lava
Tube. Visitors being evacuated.

Saturday:

Small
shallow earthquakes continue south of Halema'uma'u. Seismic tremor
low.
Two small deflations near the Kilauea summit, but no
accompanying change in seismic activity.

At Pu'u 'O'o,
inflation slowing.

Friday:

A flurry of
earthquakes under and south of Halema'uma'u. Seismic tremor low.
Very slow inflation across summit. Pu'u 'O'o inflation
normal.

Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hawai'i
Volcanoes National Park

Reach Jan TenBruggencate at [email-masked].

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